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Thursday, September 6, 2012

Another terrorist killed by US Drones...

POSTING OF THESE PICTURES DOES NOT MEAN ENDORSEMENT OR OTHERWISE

JUST SHARING A PERCEPTION HELD BY MANY IN PAKISTAN 

MY VIEW OF DRONE ATTACKS IS ENTIRELY OPPOSED TO THIS SENTIMENTAL NAZI STYLE PROPAGANDA PICTURE BELOW.

AGHA H AMIN

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

US Drone Strikes in Pakistan have little connection with main war in Afghanistan

US Strategy in Afghanistan Revisited-Why the USA Loves Haqqani


by


Agha.H.Amin


It is common to hear in the news that the USA wants Pakistan to eliminate the Haqqani network in North Waziristan.


Highest level US officials from CIA ,JCS,State Department and US House of representatives claim that the Haqqani network is the principal threat to peace in Afghanistan and to US forces in Afghanistan.


Two hard facts disprove the above assertions widely held as the Gospel truths by US administration .


First a map of Afghanistan which will enable a man to do a quick logistic appreciation and second and most important US casualties being suffered in Afghanistan.


The US is attacking by drone North and South Waziristan Agencies of Pakistans FATA region since 2005 or may be earlier.


Both the areas have no connection with the areas of Afghanistan where the maximum fighting has taken place in Afghanistan since 2001 and where maximum number of US as well as NATO fatal casualties have occurred.


Click on these maps to enlarge


These above maps are self explanatory.


The table above shows that just 7 US personnel died in Khost and Paktika provinces opposite North Waziristan in 2011 .


Even if we calculate all US and NATO  casualties suffered in Afghanistan since 2001 just 138 US personnel died out of a total of 1533 in Afghanistan.


Maximum US/NATO  fatal casualties were in Helmand and Kandahar which have no connection with Haqqani .Helmand being 722 and Kandahar 369.


Why this US misconception or misjudgement or paradoxical policy ?


There are three main reasons for this Haqqani obessed Haqqania mindset of the US !




Reason Number One


THE HAQQANI GROUP ONLY ATTACKS KABUL CITY WHERE ALL THE BIG SHOTS ARE LOCATED


I discovered the talent  of Haqqani networks in explosive when a loud bang on the evening of 30th August 2004 shook the house where I lived in sometimes in the evening ! 






I had just taken two small singles of scotch and was preparing to have more with my dear friend Professor Abdul Rasul Amin who had sometimes before been sacked by Karzai from the post of education minister.


On the way we discovered that Dyncorps a supposed security company had been attacked in Shahr e Nau with a truck bomb which had killed three or more Americans and three or more Nepali Gurkha guards.


Dyncorps we discovered was largely manned by ex CIA staff and was regarded as a threat by not only the Haqqani network but by some state intelligence agencies also.


Dyncorps it was alleged was one of the US DOD contractors dealing with Human Intellience (Humint) in Pakistans tribal areas and possibly against Pakistan as a whole.This was a Pakistani perception.It was hypothesised by Pakistani analysts that Dyncorps had Israeli Americans in large numbers and was a threat to Pakistan.


While I did not subscribe to all these views this was the general Pakistani perception .


This is when the US war with Haqqani started in the real sense.Since the US decision making set up was CIA dominated Haqqani was blown out of proportion ,while in reality he was the third largest Taliban group commander , the largest being Mullah Omar and the second largest being Hikmatyars Hizbe e Islami an its allies.








The CIA picked Waziristan as its main drone target in Pakistan and some 90 to 95 % of all drone attacks were carried out in South and North Waziristan.


In retaliation of these CIA drone strikes the Haqqani linked Taliban carried out the December 2009 Khost suicide attack which was the single highest fatal casualties suffered by the CIA in its officer cadre since its creation.


Second


A part of the US strategy is to force the Pakistani military to conduct operations against Pakistani tribals of North and South Waziristan.


These are the toughest fighters in Pakistan since they have traditionally been so ! In addition the most trained and hardline extremists from all parts of the world are settled in this area.


The US view is that forcing the Pakistani military to fight here would reduce its credibility in the eyes of the Taliban and would weaken the Taliban rear in Pakistan as far as North Afghanistan is concerned.The US is more concerned about North Afghanistan because this includes Kabul the area where Haqqani can most easily carry out an attack.Not many US personnel have died in Kabul since 2001 but Kabul being the capital stands out when attacked while who bothers about Kandahar or Helmand !


However the real fighting is in South Afghanistan in Helmand and Kandahar which have no organisational or logistical link with Haqqani.


Third


HIDING US MILITARY FAILURE IN SOUTH AFGHANISTAN


Forcing Pakistan to attack North Waziristan is a US arm twisting tactic to continuously embarass the Pakistani state and to divert the US public attention to North Waziristan as the source of all troubles thereby hiding US military failure in South Afghanistan.


Militarily Haqqani is smaller than Mullah Omar and Hekmatyar Group and thus a relatively easier target.


Since he is mostly in Pakistan only the Pakistani military regarded as cheaper in value will suffer casualties while the US peacefully engages the much larger Mulla Omar Group which in any case the USA has failed to militarily defeat or even contain.


In a larger strategic context the US wants that Pakistan should remain unstable so that the Chinese plan for using Gwadar as its main sea outlet as well as oil import inlet is not successful.


This includes Pakistani Balochistan which is being destabilised just to ensure that the Chinese sponsored Gwadar port fails .


Since South Afghanistan Taliban are in Afghanistan the US cannot ask the Pakistanis to deal with them.

SOME HARD INTELLIGENCE FACTS

  1. In 2006 while doing a survey on IEDs and suicide bombings an Afghan intelligence colonel became my friend based on my old contacts with dissidents who had migrated to Kabul in 1973-80.The colonel who was on duty in Wazeer Akbar Khan stated that US Intelligence was constantly in touch with Haqqanis brother and nephew living in the house behind Indira Gandhi Hospital and near the office of Turkish company Cukurova.
  2. He stated that he had a personal enmity with Haqqani as he was from Khost and had offered US intelligence 8 figure coordinates of Haqqani for a certain sum but US Intelligence showed no interest in eliminating Haqqani.
  3. The Taliban in South Afghanistan are not linked with Haqqani Group .Rather Haqqani is a semi independent Taliban commander who does not take orders from Mullah Omar but gives him token respect.
  4. The Al Qaeda pockets in the area of 90 % US Drone attacks in NWA have no link with the South Afghanistan Taliban inflicting major casualties on the US military.
  5.  I feel with great conviction that if the Af Pak border of 2400 Km was fenced as well as the Af Iran Border , casualties ( by this mean casualties in 90 % captain and below) could have been avoided.Fencing was not expensive.All that was required was statesmanship and vision.Instead billions were spent on relatively useless infrastructure that would only benefit the insurgents in the end.
  6. While drones have targeted a very small area of 20 X 20 miles with no connection with 90 % of US casualties in the south no major effort was made to surveill the area from where actual major infiltration was taking place in the south.
  7. The above drone contract is custom designed to benefit some contractors.
  8. The US government never even pressurised Pakistan to concentrate on cordoning the southern area from where major infiltration takes place.
  9. The US government never made any effort to deploy any troops to cordon the Iran Afghanistan border from where significant infiltration takes place.

27 July, 2010


GRAND STRATEGIC CONTRADICTIONS IN US MILITARY STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN-BY AGHA H AMIN



LONDON: The Afghan and US governments have recently made contact with insurgent group the Haqqani network, one of the most feared foes of Nato forces in Afghanistan, a British paper reported Thursday. The government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai took part in direct talks with senior members of the Haqqani group over the summer, said the Guardian daily, citing Pakistani and Arab sources. The United States, through a Western intermediary, has made indirect contacts over the past year, said the paper. Talks between the Haqqanis and both countries were extremely tentative, it added. The Haqqani network's leadership is based in North Waziristan, in Pakistan's tribal northwest, an area which has been targeted by a wave of US drone strikes in recent weeks. The group is loyal to the Taliban and has been blamed for some of the most deadly strikes in Afghanistan. It has close ties with foreign militant groups including Al-Qaeda. Asked whether talks involving Haqqani, Karzai and the US were taking place, a senior Pakistani official cited in the paper said "you wouldn't be wrong" but refused to comment further. Western, Arab and Pakistani official sources cited in the paper said the Haqqanis believe a negotiated settlement is the most likely outcome of the Afghan conflict and do not want to be left out of any deal. Sirajuddin Haqqani, who has taken over military leadership of the Haqqani group from his father Jalaluddin, "realises he could be a nobody if he doesn't enter the process," said a diplomat involved in the discussions. —AFP REFERENCE: Afghanistan, US in contact with Haqqani insurgents Thursday, 07 Oct, 2010 http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/world/14-afghanistan-us-in-contact-with-haqqani-insurgents-zj-01White House supporting Kabul contacts with Mullah Omar's men By Our Correspondent Thursday, 07 Oct, 2010 http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/white-house-supporting-kabul-contacts-with-mullah-omars-men-700 Haqqanis in direct talks with Kabul, indirect contact with US By Julian Borger and Declan Walsh Friday, 08 Oct, 2010 http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/haqqanis-in-direct-talks-with-kabul,-indirect-contact-with-us-800






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